CCMC CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2025-12-31T14:00:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2025-12-31T14:00ZDONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/43691/-1
CME Note: [PRELIMINARY] The arrival of this CME was not detected at L1. Partial halo CME visible to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, STEREO A COR2, and GOES CCOR-1. It is associated with an M7.1 flare from AR 14324 (N24E20) peaking at 2025-12-31T13:51Z. Eruption with EUV wave, dimming, opening field lines, and post eruptive arcades are best seen in SDO AIA 193 imagery. The eruption is also visible near the east limb as seen from STEREO A EUV imagery. This CME may have arrived at L1 around mid-day on 2026-01-02 and could be embedded within a broad high speed stream signature with increasing wind speeds and a few magnetic field enhancements occurring during the second half of 2026-01-02 as seen in DSCOVR and ACE data, but confidence is low and the solar wind signature is not definitive of an coronal mass ejection arrival.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-01-03T02:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:
Met Office ENLIL settings. ENLIL version: 2.7 Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform) Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1 WSA version: 4.5 GONG: mrzqs Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop. Please specify following CME input parameters. Time at 21.5Rs boundary: Radial velocity (km/s): Longitude (deg): Latitude (deg): Half-angular width (deg): Notes: Space weather advisor:Lead Time: 52.47 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2025-12-31T21:32Z
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